I agree with the extended timeline, although I think it will go faster than 8 years. Defaults are causing a lot of vacancies, and price wars to compete for tenants. Values are dropping because of it and as you stated, some who were not highly overleveraged, will be facing much lower NOI's, and possibly negative ones. Only those that can ride out the storm will be able to keep the investment so more will come to foreclosure. I am with you on the buying opps coming soon, but I am waiting just a bit longer for more blood to be running on the street. Plus, I am building more capital through residnetial investments to increase my future commercial acquisitions at pennies on the dollar.

Thanks for asking Will. Here is why I think what I do. With the estimated defaults happening on the commercial property owners, the companies that rent/ lease will have more and even cheaper options. So I know they will move or relocate. This will cause a ripple effect. Thusly lowering property values due to open facilities. Causing other commercial property owners that might not have defaulted, to go into default. This will all cause the timeline to be further extended. Please note: this is all my opinion, simply a SWAG.

Why do you think this?

I think the timeline might be off. In my humble opinion, I feel that we will not see a commercial recovery until 4-8 years. Want to know why I think this, ask me.